Trade, Tech, and Geopolitics: India’s Playbook for Growth

In a decade defined by shifting geopolitical stances and digital transformation, understanding the intersection of policy, business, and strategy has perhaps never been more important. Mr. Chauhan, founder of Indo-Pacific Advisory, is at the forefront of this change, reaching across Asia, the United States, and otherwise. In this extensive conversation, he offers insights into India's economic and sociopolitical position, reflecting on his experience in understanding and predicting global development and diplomacy and how they can shape opportunity.

From the transformative power of India's Digital Public Infrastructure to the shifting dynamics of trust between corporations and the government, India is seeping into a more assertive global role. Mr. Chauhan’s perspective provides a compelling roadmap for how policy and business can co-evolve in ways that promote sustainable, inclusive growth.

Q: You’ve had such a diverse career trajectory— from Tata Sons to Google, and now leading Indo-Pacific Advisory. Could you tell me a bit about your journey and what excites you the most about the work you do now?

Mr. Chauhan: I started my career in Japan with a scholarship from the Japanese government, after which I worked with Hitachi Limited, focused on expanding infrastructure across the Asia-Pacific region. Soon after, I pursued my Master’s in Law and Policy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Following this, I worked in Washington, D.C., at a strategic consulting firm called The Cohen Group.

Eventually, my work brought me back to India, to Tata Sons, where I had the opportunity to collaborate with various industry leaders, including the current Indian Minister of External Affairs, Mr. Jaishankar. It was here that I truly began to see the deep connection between policy and business. Tata, though an Indian company, had significant global operations—at the time, about 67 percent of its business came from outside India. Working in that environment gave me a firsthand view of how foreign policy decisions and global economic trends directly influence business outcomes. Eventually, developments like tariffs, trade shifts, and Brexit began to reshape the contours of my work.

At the same time, the geopolitical spectrum was evolving rapidly. Tech companies like Google were becoming increasingly influential in policy conversations. I joined Google, first with the policy partnerships team, and later led the trade policy function from Singapore.

At this point, a couple of things were happening simultaneously. The geopolitical landscape was shifting, and its implications for business were becoming more pronounced. India—and the broader Asia-Pacific region—was at the forefront of that transformation.

This led me to start my firm. There’s a structural shift underway in the world order, and with it comes complexity—but also opportunity. My goal was to help leaders and institutions not only understand what’s coming next but also identify the opportunities these shifts unlock.

Now, my work is focused on bridging the gap between policy and business, making sure that companies and decision-makers are not only reacting to global change but shaping their strategies to thrive within it.

India’s Position in the Global Political Landscape

Q: Looking at your present work, what are some of the biggest trends or risks you are tracking right now in India’s global economic positioning?

Mr. Chauhan: One of the most interesting things is that the perception of India went from being risky or emerging markets we characterize as volatile in the world, to being a country that is mainstream and offers opportunities of its own. Some of this India has brought about itself with reforms undertaken, the ability to portray itself to work with different domains, the manpower, and the volatility that countries are home to these days, which is not reflected in this side of the world.

Businesses are finding it hard to cope with the volatility of tariff trade structures and foreign policy, with the U.S. stock exchange seeing historic lows to highs in very short amounts of time. Conversely, believe it or not, India is a stable country. There is consistency: we have had the same government for the last 12 years, and it is finally time for the perception of ‘developing’ to change. It is time for firms like mine to explore and explain the opportunities available for leaders in our country.

Q: Are there specific industries or markets where India has the most potential to lead or improve in, in the next decade?

Mr. Chauhan: A lot of it rests on India’s size, its population, and its demographic geography. India’s ability to pursue strong policy and meaningful multilateralism in today’s complex political landscape has seen real success.

There is an opportunity across the spectrum for a country like India to truly lead in shaping the global economic and strategic narrative. While I tend to be cautious about singling out specific sectors or industries, I do believe there is still room for improvement in areas where we have traditionally lagged. This includes simplifying policy frameworks that remain overly complex and addressing critical skill gaps that emerged during earlier phases of industrial and technological growth.

One area where we clearly need to do better is innovation investment. Today, India invests only about 0.7% of its GDP in R&D—far below the global average. For a country with such a strong entrepreneurial and scientific base, this is a gap we urgently need to close. Supporting Indian companies and fostering Indian innovation more deliberately must become a national priority.

Now is the time to hone in on those areas of weakness. Indian innovation is, without a doubt, an ongoing process, and I am enthusiastic to see focused governmental attention on it.

Additionally, there is tremendous potential here: from financial services and consumer goods to energy and manufacturing. This is a golden opportunity for India to find smarter, more efficient ways of operating and ultimately enable stronger, more sustainable growth.

Q: Many compare India’s growth trajectory to China’s rise in the 2000s. Do you think India can replicate China’s economic success, or will it chart a different path?

Mr. Chauhan: Admittedly, I’m always opposed to doing an apples-to-apples comparison because countries are different from each other. Instead, one of the only real commonalities is that we’re in the same region and are a large Asian country.

To add to that, China’s experience after World War II, which led to its Nationalist government collapsing and the rise of a communist government, does impact its growth. The offset of this leads to China and India having different governmental systems that dictate the speed at which laws can be established and executed, and these things matter, making it harder to compare them.

The Indian education system, including the ability to speak the English language, the IT services, and most importantly, the youth’s population, are things that are advantageous to us. We have the youngest youth population in the world– this is a golden road to expanding manufacturing opportunities. Back in 2010, China was still refining its strategies to transition to a consumer-driven economy and India can learn from how they accelerated their manufacturing and export growth in that period.

Certainly, there is an opportunity to learn from China, but I don’t think India should try to emulate China’s success or become more like the country– again, we can definitely learn from them.

Q: What structural reforms do you think are catalysts to accelerate India’s economic transformation?

Mr. Chauhan: There are- as always– multiple industries India can improve on. This includes manufacturing, land reform, infrastructure development, all of which play a key part in the development of a country. Living in Singapore I see this first hand and you can recognize that India is lagging vastly in these sectors.

Another area of improvement is labor market reforms and increasing exports. India needs to learn how to build globally competitive, export-oriented enterprises while managing the complexity of domestic reforms. This includes simplifying the tax regime, streamlining trade and regulatory processes for businesses, and reducing the cost of capital to spur investment and scale. Undoubtedly, the country is making slow progress, there is always room for improvement.

Q: What would you say are the biggest misperceptions that Western policymakers have about India’s economic and strategic ambitions?

Mr. Chauhan: I think every country ultimately tries to understand the world from its vantage point. Nations tend to view global events through domestic lenses—what aligns with their interests, what feels familiar, or, at times, what feels threatening. That can be alarming or comforting.

India, in my view, has done a commendable job of navigating this landscape by pursuing a multialignment policy with different countries. You see it in the deepening strategic ties with the United States—Prime Minister Modi being hosted as a state guest at the White House is a signal of just how far that relationship has come. Simultaneously, India has maintained robust ties with France, the UK, and other Western nations, while also preserving its historically rooted relationship with Russia. This ability to engage with multiple power centers is not accidental—it’s a conscious foreign policy choice.

I believe that the challenge is when other countries look at India, they sometimes struggle to categorize it and box it into a specific template: Is India a dependable ally? Is it a neutral actor? We saw a lot of this uncertainty during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when many nations were unsure how to interpret India’s position.

But in reality, India is pursuing what it believes is best for its national interest and doing so with increasing clarity and confidence– India is doing good things for India. That’s the lens through which India’s foreign policy should be understood.

Indian Digital Policy and Security

Q: India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) has been a key success story, particularly with UPI and Aadhaar. What lessons can other countries learn from India’s approach to digital governance?

Mr. Chauhan: I think a lot of the emerging world, particularly when it comes to demographic and economic conditions, as well as government frameworks, shares similarities with a country like India.

What India has done well, particularly in the tech space, is create a path for innovation and integrate that into its tech stack. The US is well-known for its innovation, and if India continues to emulate some of that, while combining that with a unique, non-commercial element to it. Take UPI, for example. India has developed a system that allows an overwhelming number of people to access digital payments in a way that is not only safe and reliable but also incredibly cost-effective. What makes this approach particularly striking is how it combines significant technological innovation with grassroots-level implementation. That’s where the magic lies.

Other countries are increasingly finding India’s framework attractive because it offers solutions that are both efficient and affordable. I remember speaking with a Japanese industrialist who came to India and saw UPI in action. He found it to be a highly attractive solution: getting the best technology at the lowest cost. That’s a key lesson other nations can learn from India: creating innovative products that work effectively and at the lowest possible cost, and this is a model I believe can be replicated for many other cases, from health to insurance. The possibilities are endless.

Q: Conversely, where do you see gaps in India’s digital policy that could be improved to enhance economic growth and global integration?

Mr. Chauhan: Is India’s framework perfect? No. I don’t think any real system can be perfect. With India specifically, it has been hard for the government to keep with the rapid changes in policy in the digital space. The impact of technology is higher than ever now and it is almost utopian for the government to keep pace or for us to expect them to. There is a struggle with AI– what does it mean, how does it work?

The one key thing I’ve observed is that businesses often struggle with unpredictable costs because of the pace of regulatory frameworks. Gaps in government understanding and implementation can cause the pace at which policies are changed or introduced to be harmful and costly for businesses. This environment of uncertainty can be challenging, and a more consistent environment would help businesses thrive in the digital economy.

Q: How is India balancing data sovereignty with the need for cross-border data flows, especially in the context of foreign investment and global tech partnerships?

Mr. Chauhan: I think, overall, the approach has been quite robust. India has taken a more open policy stance on this issue. Even in difficult geopolitical situations like that of Gaza, for instance, the government has remained open to whitelisting certain countries for data movement.

There’s a growing convergence between technology and strategic partnerships between countries. Tech is no longer just commercial—it’s now seen as inherently tied to national and regional interests as well as foreign policy. That’s why we’ve moved away from the stance that all data must reside within the country. At one point, that was the dominant thinking. The government now recognizes that strict localization could deter foreign investment.

I’m encouraged by the shift: now, there’s an understanding that data can be shared securely, while protecting citizens’ privacy remains crucial. There’s a kind of calibration happening, where we distinguish between different kinds of data: personal data may stay in-country, but other forms can flow more freely.

Geopolitics and technology now intersect in a very real way, and there’s more incentive to collaborate with countries that share similar values and can be trusted. India has managed to build and enjoy that level of partnership with several nations.

Balancing Power and Policy

Q: How do you see the balance of power shifting between government regulation and corporate influence in India? What about trust?

Mr. Chauhan: The trust between corporates in India and the government in India shows us that the fact is and will remain that the government has the upper hand. It is responsible for leading the country, and that architecture is fairly clear. You don’t have corporations at the same level as the government.

The government has also certainly started exerting more influence in the country. One of my favorite examples is pre-COVID, who knew the government would get into manufacturing and distribution? Who knew the government would procure oxygen tanks and hospital beds? And the fact of the matter is that the government did all that and more—and they’ve gotten larger in terms of having the ability to pursue some of these things.

Of course, there is trust. But are both sides able to understand each other? That’s where the question is. Businesses often have a far harder time understanding government intentions: what are they doing, how are they doing it, and how do government processes work? Simultaneously, the government also finds it difficult to understand the motivations of companies. What are they pursuing? How do those goals align with broader strategic national interests? Is there a hazy level of understanding? Most definitely. At the same time, there is trust.

Q: If you were advising the Indian government today, what would be your top three policy priorities?

Mr. Chauhan: First, a lot of it right now is about opportunities. India is in a position where it can be part of some of the most important global conversations. Really, the biggest risk we face is not being able to align and pursue these opportunities strategically. Every opportunity has an expiry date, and if we fail to align our policy and national interests to capitalize on them, we could miss out.

Secondly, we need to ensure we're investing in the right sectors like research and development and innovation. We need to be able to create more innovation and get better at this process domestically. The countries and companies that are at the forefront of technology are the ones winning right now. It is something we are lagging behind on and need to find a way to bridge the gap.

Thirdly, it is making sure we understand the world better, particularly Indian companies. The world is shifting, and this shift brings significant opportunity but also significant risk. Even if you’re an Indian company working from India, it is crucial that you understand the world beyond our shores.

The world we live in is so interconnected today and we need a better sense of it to ensure we can learn and engage and factor more holistically and effectively.

Concluding statements

By Muhan Li & Dia Makhecha

India’s strategic alignment of policy with business innovation not only offers new and distinctive opportunities for the country but also establishes a technological framework that holds valuable insights for the rest of the world. Admittedly, Mr. Chauhan’s insights reveal several key points of improvement.

First, while reforms and stability have improved global perceptions of India, there remains a pressing need for innovation investment and simplification of policy frameworks.

Second, India needs to find a more efficient way to operate foundational sectors, ranging from financial services to manufacturing. Third, instead of replicating development models like China’s, India is well-positioned to capitalize on its unique demographic advantage, robust digital advancements like UPI and Aadhaar, and a proactive multialignment approach to foreign policy.

Finally, despite the challenges of regulatory changes in the digital sphere, India’s steady governance and forward-looking leadership lay a foundation for sustainable collaboration with like-minded nations — an approach that, as Mr. Chauhan puts it, should be understood as “India is doing good things for India.”